A prediction is only worth as much as its track record.
Anyone can show you a confident number before launch. We do the part almost no one does: after a campaign goes live, we compare what we predicted to what actually happened — click-through, conversions, cost — and show you the gap.
Calibration is how a simulation earns the right to be trusted with your budget.
- Click-through rate4.2%3.9%
- Conversion rate2.8%3.1%
- Cost per acquisition$41$44
Change the window. Watch the forecast meet reality.
The trust card scores how closely each prediction matched live results over a window you choose. Switch between 7, 30, and 90 days and watch predicted line up against actual.
"Trust the AI" is not a measurement.
Prediction tools are everywhere and accountability for those predictions is nowhere. A score with no track record behind it is just a confident guess in a nicer font — and you're the one spending real money on it.
Predictions that never get graded
Most tools forecast a number, you spend against it, and no one ever circles back to ask whether it was right.
Confidence without accuracy
A precise-looking estimate feels trustworthy even when it's systematically wrong in the same direction every time.
No way to compare models
If you can't measure accuracy, you can't tell whether a fancier (and pricier) model is actually any better.
Your calibration card, always on.
Every workspace gets a living trust card that scores how closely our simulations matched live results across your own campaigns — not a vendor case study, your account.
Predicted vs. actual, per metric
CTR, conversion rate, and CPA forecasts laid side by side with the real outcome after the campaign ran.
A single accuracy score
The gap rolls up into one calibration score, so you can see at a glance how much to trust the next prediction.
Per-simulation detail
Drill into any individual simulation to see exactly which concepts it called right and where it drifted.
Segment shrinkage
When a segment's predictions run hot, calibration can automatically pull future estimates toward reality.
Model leaderboard
Compare LLM presets head-to-head on calibration quality and pick the one that's actually most accurate for you.
Gets sharper over time
Every launched campaign feeds back in, so the simulator's accuracy on your business compounds with use.
Predict, launch, measure, correct.
Predict
Launch
Measure
Correct
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